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Whether you work in the retail industry or not, many marketers follow reports about US consumer spending and view them as an indicator as to whether or not the economy is turning around. Retail industry terms such as “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday” are now commonly used to refer to the busiest shopping days of the year, and are synonymous with the deep discounts and free shipping offers designed to incentivize consumers to purchase in the days immediately following Thanksgiving.

Today is Cyber Monday, so what is the consumer spending outlook for the 2009 holiday season? According to initial estimates, the prognosis isn’t great… but it’s not bad either. ShopperTrak, which measures traffic and sales in 500,000 brick and mortar retail locations across the country, estimates that Black Friday in-store sales hit $10.66 billion this year, an increase of 0.5 percent over 2008. The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 7.9% drop in combined offline and online sales versus Black Friday 2008 based on a poll of 4,985 consumers, however it also reported a traffic increase of 23 million visitors to online retail websites on Black Friday over 2008. According to the LA Times, it appears that consumers are still spending, but they are opting for reasonably-priced sale items and not choosing full-priced or luxury items. Fortunately for everyone involved, 87.1% of retailers are holding Cyber Monday sales, according to the NRF.

The most positive projection issued to date comes from comScore, estimating that US consumers spent $595 million online this past Friday, up 11% from 2008. Could it be that online commerce is seeing double-digit growth while brick and mortar stores continue to lose ground? It’s still too early to tell for certain, but it’s clear that consumers are becoming more and more comfortable transacting online.

This shift is important to note for marketers in every industry. As business moves increasingly online, it’s more important than ever to think holistically about your email communication strategy and integrate it with customer touch-points in other channels. Email is the conduit for business online and is a mission critical component of any online sales or communication strategy. If you’re still sending “email blasts” each time you need to promote a specific item, it’s time to re-evaluate your approach. Invest in the technology, tools, and resources that you need to build a comprehensive customer communications program leveraging all of the digital marketing channels that make sense for your business, because its future is online.